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Trade Signals: 40-Year Record Inversion

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Trade Signals, by Steve Blumenthal

January 5, 2022, S&P 500 Index –3.813

Markets move in cycles, and cycles will always exist. Trade Signals provides a weekly snapshot of current stock, bond, currency, and gold market trends. Trade Signals is a summary of technical indicators to help you identify where we sit in short-, intermediate-, and long-term cycles. We track important valuation metrics to help assess the probability of coming returns. Valuations can tell us a great deal about coming probable returns. Simply, where is opportunity best/worst? This allows you to set targets strategically (i.e., more defense than offense or more offense than defense). Trade Signals also tracks select investor sentiment indicators with the objective of going against the crowd at points of extreme. As Warren Buffett often reminds us, “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” Stay on top of the current trends with “Trade Signals.”

  • Market Commentary
  • Trade Signals — Dashboard of Indicators
  • Charts with Explanations

TRADE SIGNALS SUBSCRIPTION ACKNOWLEDGEMENT / IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES 

Market Commentary

The Fed warned investors, bluntly stating any pivot prediction is misguided. Minutes from the December Fed meeting were released yesterday (Wednesday, January 4, 2023) – the Fed was blunt, “No participations anticipated that it would be appropriate” to cut rates. 

40-Year Record Inversion

On 12-31-22, the Yield Curve is the most inverted since the late 1970s and early 1980s.  Bottom line: It is nearly impossible to bet against recession. We are now in the 7th month since the yield curve inverted. The “Median Lead Time” from inversion is 11 months.  The shortest was 7 months (1960), and the longest was 21 months (2008). 

The high yield trend is back in a buy signal. Keep stop loss triggers tight. It’s my view that the next recession will cause a meaningful number of bankruptcy’s causing a generational buying opportunity with prices much lower than current levels and yields perhaps in the 20% range. Of course, I could be wrong. For now, stay nimble and keep stop-loss triggers tight.   

The Zweig Bond model sits at -2, signaling an up trend in interest rates.  A bearish trend signal for high-grade bonds. The intermediate trend in equities remains down. The extreme bearish put/call ratio reading is back to neutral. The equity market trend signals remain mostly red across the Equity Trade Signals Dashboard.

Volume Supply remains greater than Volume Demand. It is a measure of selling volume vs. buying volume. There are currently more sellers than buyers. NDR plots the data back to 1981. When volume demand is above volume supply, the percentage gain per year was 11.79%. When volume demand was below volume supply, the percentage gain per year was -1.37%. This is a good indicator to follow, and we’ll keep a close eye on it in 2023. Note the indicator has been bearish since January 2022. 

The Zweig Bond Model is back in a sell signal suggesting higher interest rates and lower bond prices. The dollar is turning bullish. The trend in gold is bullish.

Grab a stiff drink. Here is your 2022 stock and bond market review:

A performance summary from our friends at Franklin Templeton. Not that you need a reminder.  An excellent year for Energy. A disastrous year for  Communication Services. Various bond market returns are reflected, as are key market indicators. The trend in the Fed Funds rate is higher, as the Fed aggressively warned us this week. Inflation is cooling, Unemployment is rising, and expect GDP to decline in recession. 

 

Not a recommendation for you to buy or sell any security.  For information purposes only.  Please talk with your advisor about needs, goals, time horizons, and risk tolerances. TRADE SIGNALS SUBSCRIPTION ACKNOWLEDGEMENT / IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES 

Trade Signals — Dashboard of Indicators

(Green is Bullish, Red is Bearish, Orange is signal change is near)

TRADE SIGNALS SUBSCRIPTION ACKNOWLEDGEMENT / IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES 

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Charts with Explanations

Primary Equity Market Signals – Charts

Ned Davis Research CMG U.S. Large Cap Long/Flat Index – Buy Signal – 50% U.S. Large Cap Equity Exposure (Most Recent Score = 43.91)

The Ned Davis Research (NDR) CMG U.S. Large Cap Long/Flat Index measures “market breadth.” Market breadth is simply a measurement of market activity, such as advances and declines, new highs and new lows, advancing and declining volume and price momentum, and Trends based on the number of stocks in uptrends and downtrends.  Technicians like “breadth” measurements for two main reasons: 1) Breadth thrusts are often present at the start of major bull markets. 2) Breadth nearly always weakens before prices do at major peaks. (Source: Ned Davis Research) The NDR CMG U.S. Large Cap Long/Flat Index process measures market breadth by analyzing the overall technical strength of the market across 24 Industry Groups (GICS), as measured by three types of priced-based, industry-level indicators: trend-following, volatility, and mean-reversion.  Trend-following primary indicators include momentum and moving average measures that evaluate the rate of change in price in each of the 24 Industry Groups (GICS) over short-term, intermediate, and long-term time frames to assess the current direction of the markets.  Mean-reversion indicators are applied in each of the 24 Industry Groups (GICS), measuring the deviation in price movement above and below the historic long-term price trend.  Mean-reversion is based on the theory that prices and returns eventually move back toward their historical mean (or average).  The model applies these primary and secondary indicators across the S&P 500 industry groupings to ultimately produce trade signals that are either bullish (meaning prices increasing over time) or bearish (meaning prices decreasing over time).  The final market breadth composite is the scaled aggregation of these indicators across the S&P 500 industries to determine the breadth composite score (between 0 and 100).  A high score means that there is broad positive up-trending participation across the 24 Industry Groups. A low score means many sectors have broken down. Generally, scores above 50 (bold red dotted line in the middle section of the chart) indicate a strong market environment, and scores below 50 indicate a weak market environment. If you would like to see the long-term index history, we can share it with you on a one-on-one basis at your request.  Please email me at blumenthal@cmgwealth.com. TRADE SIGNALS SUBSCRIPTION ACKNOWLEDGEMENT / IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES 

S&P 500 Large Cap Index – 13/34–Week EMA Trend Chart: Sell Signal – Bearish for Equities

The process measures the intermediate-term Trend in the S&P 500 Index.  A bullish trend is identified when the blue 13-week smoothed moving average (“M.A.”) trend line rises above the 34-week smoothed M.A. trend line.  A bearish trend is signaled when the blue line drops below the red line.  You can see that this trend process has done a pretty good job at identifying the major cyclical (short-term) bull and bear market trends (note small red and blue arrows).  In terms of risk management, a good stop-loss level may be at the point when the 13-week drops below the 34-week EMA with re-entry at the point the 13-week crosses above.

Click here to see “How I think about the 13/34-Week Exponential Moving Average.” TRADE SIGNALS SUBSCRIPTION ACKNOWLEDGEMENT / IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES 

Volume Demand vs. Volume Supply: Sell Signal – Bearish for Equities  When there are more buyers than sellers, prices move higher.  When there are more sellers than buyers, prices decline.  Supply and demand dynamics work that way in all things – real estate, oil, stock prices, and all goods in a free market. The Volume Demand vs. Volume Supply process looks at a smoothed total volume of declining issues versus a smoothed total volume of advancing issues using a broad market equity index.  The performance, reflected in the chart below, is better when Vol Demand is better than Vol Supply.  More buyers than sellers.  This is a relatively slow-moving but important indicator. Source: Ned Davis Research NDR Disclosure. Click here for additional information about the indicator. If you would like to see the long-term index history, we can share it with you on a one-on-one basis at your request. Please email me at blumenthal@cmgwealth.com. TRADE SIGNALS SUBSCRIPTION ACKNOWLEDGEMENT / IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES 

S&P 500 Index Monthly MACD: Sell Signal – Bearish for Equities

TRADE SIGNALS SUBSCRIPTION ACKNOWLEDGEMENT / IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES 

S&P 500 Index Daily MACD Indicator: Sell Signal – Short-term Bearish for U.S. Large Cap Equities

Focus on the MACD moving average lines at the bottom of the chart.  Buy signals (green arrows) occur when the black line crosses above the red line.  Sell signals (red arrows) occur when the black line crosses below the red line.  You can learn more about MACD here.

TRADE SIGNALS SUBSCRIPTION ACKNOWLEDGEMENT / IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES 

Don’t Fight the Tape or the Fed – Indicator Reading = +0 (Neutral Signal for Equities)

Current readings are highlighted below. The idea of this indicator is to”Watch out for -2!”

  • The indicators that comprise this reading are a combination of NDR’s Big Mo and the 10-Year Treasury yield. It highlights just how important Fed activity is to market performance. Readings range from +2 to -2.
  • Bottom line: when both the Trend in interest rates (lower yields) and the Trend in the overall market (the tape) are bullish, the market has historically performed best.
  • +2 readings have occurred approximately 11% of the time since 1994, and returns were the best.
  • +1 readings have occurred approximately 26% of the time since 1980, and returns were good.
  • 0 readings have occurred approximately 31% of the time since 1980, and returns were positive and similar to long-term stock market return averages.
  • -1 readings have occurred approximately 26% of the time since 1980, and returns were positive but in the low single digits.
  • -2 readings have occurred approximately 6% of the time since 1980, and the returns were worst, similar to long-term bear market average declines.

Source: Ned Davis Research NDR Disclosure; CMG Disclosure.

If you would like to see the long-term index history, we can share it with you on a one-on-one basis at your request. Please email me at blumenthal@cmgwealth.com. TRADE SIGNALS SUBSCRIPTION ACKNOWLEDGEMENT / IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

Value vs. Growth Factor Model: Favors Value over Growth

NDR requested we not share certain charts. If you want a copy of this chart, I can share it with you one-on-one. Please email me at blumenthal@cmgwealth.com.

The process plots a relative strength ratio comparing the S&P 500-Citigroup Growth Index to the Citigroup Value Index.  When the relative strength ratio is rising, growth is outperforming value.  When falling, value is outperforming growth. When the model is “neutral,” it indicates there is no clear tendency for outperformance by either Value or Growth. This is a long-term model that tends to produce one trade per year to one trade every few years. More Information Here If you would like to see the long-term index history, we can share it with you on a one-on-one basis at your request. Please email me at blumenthal@cmgwealth.com. TRADE SIGNALS SUBSCRIPTION ACKNOWLEDGEMENT / IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

Secondary Equity Market Signals – Charts

S&P 500 Index vs. 200-Day Moving Average Trend: Sell Signal – Bearish for US Large Cap Equities

Here is how to read the chart:

  • Please note that this is not a trading model. I believe that too many investors use the 200-day moving cross rule to trade the market. My problem with this approach is professional traders, and algorithmic trading systems look to take advantage of logical areas of a potentially large trading volume. Aware of this behavior, professional traders and quantitative trading models seek to force investor activity, creating a short-term trading opportunity for themselves.
  • The objective of the following chart is twofold: First, to see where the 200-day moving average line is, and second, to see if the 200-day MA is rising or falling. As the hypothetical data history suggests, returns are historically better when the orange-dotted 200-day moving average line is rising.
  • This is NOT a trading model; however, it is helpful in understanding the market’s dominant trend. Less defense in up-trending markets and more defense in down-trending markets.

If you would like to see the long-term index history or a different date range, we can share it with you on a one-on-one basis at your request. Please email me at blumenthal@cmgwealth.com. TRADE SIGNALS SUBSCRIPTION ACKNOWLEDGEMENT / IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES 

S&P 500 Index vs. 50-Day & 200-Day Moving Average Cross: Sell Signal – Bearish for US Large Cap Equities

Sell signals occur when the 50-day shorter-term moving average trend line drops below the longer-term 200-day moving average trend line.  The idea is to be invested when the primary trend is bullish and risk protection when the trend is bearish. Red arrows (sell signals) point to when the 50-day MA crosses below the 200-day MA. Green arrows (buy signals) point to periods when the 50-day crossed above the 200-day MA.

TRADE SIGNALS SUBSCRIPTION ACKNOWLEDGEMENT / IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES 

NASDAQ Composite vs. 50-day & 200-Day Moving Average Trend: Sell Signal – Bearish for Equities

This is the same concept as the above S&P 500 Index 50-day vs. 200-day Moving Average Trend chart. Note the red and green arrows. The last signal was a sell signal in Q1 2022 at approximately 13,750.

 TRADE SIGNALS SUBSCRIPTION ACKNOWLEDGEMENT / IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES 

Investor Sentiment Indicators

“Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful.” – Warren Buffett Fear and Greed can be measured in terms of investor optimism and pessimism.  In this section, we look at the NDR Crow Sentiment Poll (a weekly sentiment indicator), the NDR Daily Trading Sentiment Composite (a daily sentiment indicator), and the Put Call Ratio (an indicator commonly used to determine the mood of the options market).

NDR Crowd Sentiment Poll: Extreme Pessimism (S/T Bullish for Equities) The NDR Crowd Sentiment Poll is a composite sentiment indicator that highlights short- to intermediate-term swings in investor psychology. Looking at this indicator’s data back to 12-1-1995, the evidence suggests that the crowd (investors in general) are wrong at market extremes. Supporting Buffett’s advice.

  • The current daily sentiment reading is 47.30. It was 48.30 last week.
  • Buying opportunities occur at “Extreme Pessimism” readings below 57. The percentage gain per annum for the S&P 500 Index was more than 20% per annum, looking at data back to 12-1-1995.
  • Selling (and/or hedging) opportunities occur at “Extreme Optimism” readings above 66. The percentage gain per annum for the S&P 500 Index was negative, looking at data from 12-1-1995.
  • Source: Ned Davis Research. (NDR Disclosure; CMG Disclosure

If you would like to see the long-term performance history, we can share it with you on a one-on-one basis at your request. Please email me at blumenthal@cmgwealth.com. TRADE SIGNALS SUBSCRIPTION ACKNOWLEDGEMENT / IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES 

NDR Daily Trading Sentiment Composite: Neutral (S/T Neutral for Equities)

  • The current daily sentiment reading is 42.22. It was 37.78 last week.
  • Buying opportunities occur at “Extreme Pessimism” readings below 41.5.
    • Looking at the data back to 1994, the percentage gain per annum for the S&P 500 Index was more than 20% per annum.
  • Selling/trading opportunities occur at “Extreme Optimism” readings above 62.5.
    • Looking at the data back to 1994, the percentage gain per annum for the S&P 500 Index was negative.
  • Source: Ned Davis Research. (NDR Disclosure; CMG Disclosure.)

If you would like to see the long-term performance history, we can share it with you on a one-on-one basis at your request. Please email me at blumenthal@cmgwealth.com. TRADE SIGNALS SUBSCRIPTION ACKNOWLEDGEMENT / IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES 

Put-Call Ratio: Neutral (S/T Neutral for Equities)

The Put/Call Ratio is an indicator that shows put volume relative to call volume. Put options are used to hedge against market weakness or bet on a decline. Call options are used to hedge against market strength or bet on an advance. The Put/Call Ratio is above 1 when put volume exceeds call volume and below 1 when call volume exceeds put volume. Typically, this indicator is used to gauge market sentiment. The sentiment is deemed excessively bearish when the Put/Call Ratio is trading at relatively high levels and excessively bullish when at relatively low levels. As with most sentiment indicators, the Put/Call Ratio is used as a contrarian indicator to gauge bullish and bearish extremes. Contrarians turn bearish when too many traders are bullish and turn bullish when too many traders are bearish. Traders buy puts as insurance against a market decline or as a directional bet. While calls are not used so much for insurance purposes, they are bought as a directional bet on rising prices. Put volume increases when the expectations for a decline increase. Conversely, call volume increases when the expectations for an advance increase. Sentiment reaches extremes when the Put/Call Ratio moves to relatively high or low levels. These extremes are not fixed and can change over time. A Put/Call Ratio at its lower extremities would show excessive bullishness because call volume would be significantly higher than put volume. In contrarian terms, excessive bullishness would argue for caution and the possibility of a stock market decline. A Put/Call Ratio at its upper extremities would show excessive bearishness because put volume would be significantly higher than call volume. Excessive bearishness would argue for optimism and the possibility of a bullish reversal. Source: StockCharts.com The current regime is highlighted in yellow below.

  • The current daily sentiment reading is 1.91 (green circle at the top of the chart).  
  • The blue horizontal line in the center of the chart marks the neutral line (equal put and call volume).
  • Green EXTREME PESSIMISM ZONE (Bullish for Stocks)
  • Red EXTREME OPTIMISM ZONE (Bearish for Stocks)

TRADE SIGNALS SUBSCRIPTION ACKNOWLEDGEMENT / IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES 

Fixed Income Trade Signals

The Zweig Bond Model Current Signal: -2 Sell Signal on Bonds

Model Trend Indicators:

  1. Buy when the Dow 20 price index rises from a bottom by 0.6%. Sell when the index falls from a peak by 0.6%.
  2. Buy when the Doe 20 price index rises from a bottom by 1.8%. Sell when the index falls from a peak by 1.8%.
  3. Buy when the Doe 20 price index exceeds its 50-day moving average by 1%. Sell when the index crosses below the 50-day by 1%
  4. Buy when the Fed Funds Target Rate drops by at least 1/2 point. Sell when the rate rises by at least 1/2 point.
  5. Buy when the yield curve (AAA corporate yield minus the 90-day commercial paper yield) exceeds 0.6. Sell when the yield curve falls below -0.2. Go neutral between -0.2 and 0.6.

Add up the total score. Scores can range from +5 to -5.  Positive scores of +1 or higher equal a buy signal. Negative scores of -1 or lower equal a sell signal. Historically, bond market returns are meaningfully better when the model is in a buy signal. Click this link to learn How to Track the Zweig Bond Model. The Model index performance history vs. buying and holding is available at your request. If you would like to see the long-term performance history, we can share it with you on a one-on-one basis at your request. Please email me at blumenthal@cmgwealth.com. NDR Disclosure; CMG Disclosure TRADE SIGNALS SUBSCRIPTION ACKNOWLEDGEMENT / IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES 

10-Year Treasury Weekly MACD: Buy Signal – Declining Rates: Bullish on Bonds 

TRADE SIGNALS SUBSCRIPTION ACKNOWLEDGEMENT / IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES 

Extended Duration Treasury ETF: Buy Signal -Declining Rates: Bullish on Bonds

TRADE SIGNALS SUBSCRIPTION ACKNOWLEDGEMENT / IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES 

High Yield Bond Market: Buy Signal – High Yield Bond Market

Historically, the high-yield bond market has been an early economic indicator. Watching the trend in price can tell us a great deal about what is happening fundamentally with U.S. businesses. Some traders like to use a moving average as a price signal, buying when the price moves above a MA line and selling when it moves below. Pictured in the next chart is a 30-day MA line (blue). In the bottom section, I highlight a MACD price momentum indicator. Signals occur when the faster-moving black line crosses above or below the slower-moving red line. It is a measure to determine the intermediate price trend in the high-yield bond market. Some traders use a cross above the 30-day moving line to buy and a drop below the 30-day moving average line to sell. The popular PIMCO High Yield Bond fund is used as a real-time proxy for what is happening in the high-yield bond market. Important Note: CMG has managed a high-yield bond price trend trading strategy since 1992 and continues to manage the strategy to this day. CMG’s buy and sell signals are based on different trend indicators, and therefore, actual trades may vary from the signal process below. CMG does not publish its signal. Not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Consult your advisor.

TRADE SIGNALS SUBSCRIPTION ACKNOWLEDGEMENT / IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES 

Economic and Select Recession Watch Indicators:

  • Global Recession – High Probability of a Global Recession
  • U.S. Recession – High Probability of U.S. Recession Risk (Next Six Months)
  • Inflation Watch – Declining Inflationary Pressures
  • Dr. Copper – Long-term Bearish Sell Signal
  • U.S. Dollar Price Trend – Short-term (Daily MACD) Sell Signal
  • U.S. Dollar Price Trend – Medium-term (Weekly MACD) Sell Signal

TRADE SIGNALS SUBSCRIPTION ACKNOWLEDGEMENT / IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES 

Dr. Copper: Long-term Bearish Sell Signal

“Dr. Copper” is insider lingo used in the commodities markets to explain price trends in copper’s ability to predict the economy’s overall health.  When copper prices decline, it may indicate sluggish demand and an imminent economic slowdown.  The following chart looks at monthly price data.

U.S. Dollar Price Trend: Short-term (Daily MACD) Buy Signal 

U.S. Dollar Price Trend: Medium-term (Weekly MACD) Sell Signal 

Select Recession Watch Indicators:

The average decline in the S&P 500 is approximately 37% during recessions.  The last two recessions have given us greater than -50% each.  Given that we have tripled up on the same thing that caused the last recession (debt/leverage/Fed policy), the next recession will be equally or more challenging than the last two.  Thus, my recession obsession.  Following are my favorite recession watch indicators. Bottom line: We are likely in a global recession.

Global Recession Probability Indicator – High Probability of a Global Recession

  • This indicator plots the probability of a global recession based on leading indicators from 35 countries (non-U.S.).
  • Ranging on a scale of 0 to 100, The current reading is 98.15, meaning there is a 98.15% probability that we are in a global recession.
  • Bottom line: High Global Recession Risk.

If you would like to see the long-term performance history, we can share it with you on a one-on-one basis at your request. Please email me at blumenthal@cmgwealth.com. The Economy Based on the Stock Market Indicator – High U.S. Recession Risk

  • Economic expansion signals (up arrows) are generated when the S&P 500 Index rises by 3.8% above its five-month smoothed moving average line.
  • Economic contraction signals are generated when the S&P 500 Index falls by 4.8% below its five-month smoothed moving average line.
  • Current signal = Contraction as of 4-3-22
  • Note the 77% “Correct Signals” in the top left corner of the chart.  This process has done a good job of signaling before recessions.  Not perfect, but pretty good.

Recession Probability Based on Employment Trends – Low U.S. Recession Risk

  • Expansion signals are generated when the Conference Board’s Employment Trends Index rises by 0.4% from a low point.
  • Contraction signals are generated when the index falls by 4.8% from a high point.
  • Current signal = Expansion (SIGNAL ON 7-31-2020)

Credit Conditions – Neutral, Modest U.S. Recession Risk

  • When lending tightens up “Credit Conditions Unfavorable,” companies have difficulty funding.
  • Data Source: NDR’s Credit Conditions Index (B345A)
  • Bottom line: Lending conditions are currently favorable.

U.S. Economy vs. Yield Curve (6mo Tsy vs. 10-year Tsy) – Inverted Yield Curve High U.S. Recession Risk

  • Inversion happens when the 6-month Treasury Bill yield exceeds the 10-year Treasury Note yield. Many follow the 2-year vs. 10-year Treasury (same idea – when short-term rates are higher than long-term rates, something is not well in the system.
  • Inversion happened for the third time in 2022 in June 2022 and has remained inverted since then.
  • Historically, inversions have resulted in a recession within 6-mo’s to 18 months. Source: Commonwealth Financial Network.  
  • Among bear markets since 1946, the average decline with a recession was 35.8% versus 27.9% on average without a recession. Source
  • An inverted yield curve has preceded every recession since 1958, with a “median lead time” of 11 months before the recession started, according to Ned Davis Research (chart E641).
  • Since recessions are only known in hindsight, it is important to have a high probability of knowing in advance.
  • All the bad stuff happens in recessions.
  • Bottom line: The inverted yield curve is signaling high recession risk in Q1 or early Q2 2023

Gold

13-week EMA vs. 34-week EMA: Sell Signal Buy signals occur when the 13-week moving average trendline (blue line) crosses above the 34-week moving average trendline (red line).  Sell signals occur when the 13-week moving average trendline (blue line) crosses below the slower-moving 34-week moving average trendline (red line). Green arrows indicate buy signals; red arrows sell signals. TRADE SIGNALS SUBSCRIPTION ACKNOWLEDGEMENT / IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES  Intermediate-Term MACD: Buy Signal  TRADE SIGNALS SUBSCRIPTION ACKNOWLEDGEMENT / IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES 

Why risk management?

Asset Classes Move Through Periods of Bull and Bear Market Cycles Over Time: This next chart shows the BULL market Secular Trend for Stocks (top section), the direction in Long-Term Government Bond Yields (middle section), and Commodities (bottom section).  The best gains are made in Secular Bull market cycles.

TRADE SIGNALS SUBSCRIPTION ACKNOWLEDGEMENT / IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES 

Investing is a probability game.  Limit downside: In the long run, it’s about the math.  This next chart shows the “The Merciless Mathematics of Loss”.  A 10% decline only requires an 11% subsequent return to get back to even.  A 30% decline requires a 43% subsequent return to get back to even.  A 50% decline requires a 100% subsequent return to get back to even.  You can read more about it here.

Please email me at Blumenthal@cmgwealth.com with any questions/comments.

To receive Steve’s free weekly On My Radar e-newsletter, subscribe here. 

With kind regards, Steve Stephen B. Blumenthal Executive Chairman & CIO CMG Capital Management Group, Inc. 10 Valley Stream Parkway, Suite 202 Malvern, PA 19355 blumenthal@cmgwealth.com Telephone: 610-989-9090 Facsimile: 610-989-9092

Advisor/Investor Education Materials and White Papers Several client educational pieces:

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PLEASE NOTE LIMITATIONS: NO GUARANTEE-YOU CAN LOSE MONEY! Different types of investments and/or investment strategies involve varying degrees of risk and volatility, and at any specific point in time, or over any specific time-period, any investment or investment strategy can and will suffer losses, at times substantial losses. The Publisher’s obligation is expressly limited to providing the subscriber access to the Signals for the subscriber’s review and consideration. The Publisher has absolutely no responsibility for any determination as to the suitability of any of the Signals or any other Publication content for the Subscriber, such determination being the initial and ongoing exclusive responsibility of the subscriber.

RELEASE  AND HOLD HARMLESS. As indicated above, different types of investments and/or investment strategies involve varying degrees of risk and volatility, and at any specific point in time, or over any specific time-period, any investment or investment strategy can and will suffer losses, at times substantial losses. The subscriber retains all decision-making authority as to whether or not to follow and/or implement any of the Signal or any other Publication content. Subscriber, on behalf of himself/herself/itself, and each of his/her/its dependents, heirs, successors, and assigns, agrees to defend, indemnify and hold the Publisher (including its officers, directors, members, employees, and agents) harmless from any and all adverse consequences resulting from Subscriber’s access to the Publication and implementation of the Signals, including, but not limited to, any and all monetary losses.

THE SUBSCRIBER, HEREBY ACKNOWLEDGES AND AGREES TO ALL OF THE ABOVE TERMS AND CONDITIONS, INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, THE RELEASE AND HOLD HARMLESS.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION

Investing involves risk.  Past performance does not guarantee or indicate future results.  Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk.  Therefore, it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended and/or undertaken by CMG Capital Management Group, Inc. or any of its related entities (collectively, “CMG”) will be profitable, equal any historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful.  No portion of the content should be construed as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.  References to specific securities, investment programs or funds are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as recommendations to purchase or sell such securities.  Portfolio positions are subject to change at any time without notice.  Please contact your CMG representative if you have any questions about your account. Certain portions of the content may contain a discussion of, and/or provide access to, opinions and/or recommendations of CMG (and those of other investment and non-investment professionals) as of a specific prior date.  Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, such discussion may no longer be reflective of current recommendations or opinions.  Derivatives and options strategies are not suitable for every investor, may involve a high degree of risk, and may be appropriate investments only for sophisticated investors who are capable of understanding and assuming the risks involved.  Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained herein serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from CMG or the professional advisors of your choosing.  To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisors of his/her choosing.  CMG is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the newsletter content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. This presentation does not discuss, directly or indirectly, the amount of the profits or losses, realized or unrealized, by any CMG client from any specific funds or securities.  Please note: In the event that CMG references performance results for an actual CMG portfolio, the results are reported net of advisory fees and inclusive of dividends.  The performance referenced is that as determined and/or provided directly by the referenced funds and/or publishers, has not been independently verified, and does not reflect the performance of any specific CMG client.  CMG clients may have experienced materially different performance based upon various factors during the corresponding time periods. The Ned Davis Research CMG U.S. Large Cap Long/Flat Index is not sponsored by S&P Dow Jones Indices or its affiliates or third party licensors (collectively, “S&P Dow Jones Indices”).  S&P Dow Jones Indices will not be liable for any errors or omissions in calculating the Ned Davis Research CMG U.S. Large Cap Long/Flat Index.  “Calculated by S&P Dow Jones Indices” and the related stylized mark(s) are service marks of S&P Dow Jones Indices.  S&P® is a registered trademark of Standard & Poor’s Financial Services LLC and Dow Jones® is a registered trademark of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC.

NOT FDIC INSURED.  MAY LOSE VALUE.  NO BANK GUARANTEE.

HYPOTHETICAL PRESENTATIONS:

To the extent that any portion of the content reflects hypothetical results that were achieved by means of the retroactive application of a back-tested model, such results have inherent limitations, including: (1) the model results do not reflect the results of actual trading using client assets, but were achieved by means of the retroactive application of the referenced models, certain aspects of which may have been designed with the benefit of hindsight; (2) back-tested performance may not reflect the impact that any material market or economic factors might have had on the advisor’s use of the model if the model had been used during the period to actually manage client assets; and, (3) CMG’s clients may have experienced investment results during the corresponding time periods that were materially different from those portrayed in the model.  Please Also Note: Past performance may not be indicative of future results.  Therefore, no current or prospective client should assume that future performance will be profitable, or equal to any corresponding historical index (e.g., S&P 500 Total Return or Dow Jones Wilshire U.S. 5000 Total Market IndexSM) is also disclosed.  For example, the S&P 500 Total Return Index (the “S&P”) is a market capitalization-weighted index of 500 widely held stocks often used as a proxy for the stock market.  S&P Dow Jones chooses the member companies for the S&P based on market size, liquidity, and industry group representation.  Included are the common stocks of industrial, financial, utility, and transportation companies.  The historical performance results of the S&P (and those of or all indices) and the model results do not reflect the deduction of transaction and custodial charges, nor the deduction of an investment management fee, the incurrence of which would have the effect of decreasing indicated historical performance results.  For example, the deduction combined annual advisory and transaction fees of 1.00% over a 10-year period would decrease a 10% gross return to an 8.9% net return.  The S&P is not an index into which an investor can directly invest.  The historical S&P performance results (and those of all other indices) are provided exclusively for comparison purposes only, so as to provide general comparative information to assist an individual in determining whether the performance of a specific portfolio or model meets, or continues to meet, his/her investment objective(s).  A corresponding description of the other comparative indices, are available from CMG upon request.  It should not be assumed that any CMG holdings will correspond directly to any such comparative index.  The model and indices performance results do not reflect the impact of taxes.  CMG portfolios may be more or less volatile than the reflective indices and/or models.In the event that there has been a change in an individual’s investment objective or financial situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with his/her investment professionals. Written Disclosure Statement.  CMG is an SEC registered investment advisor located in Malvern, Pennsylvania. Stephen B. Blumenthal is CMG’s founder and CEO. Please note: The above views are those of CMG and its CEO, Stephen Blumenthal, and do not reflect those of any sub-advisor that CMG may engage to manage any CMG strategy, or exclusively determines any internal strategy employed by CMG.  A copy of CMG’s current written disclosure statement discussing advisory services and fees is available upon request or via CMG’s internet website at http://www.cmgwealth.com/disclosures/advs.  Click here to review CMG’s Privacy Policy. Ned Davis Research: For years, I have subscribed to Ned Davis Research.  They are an independent research firm.  Their clients are institutional (professional) investor clients like CMG.  They are one of the most respected research firms in the business. They offer several levels of subscription.  You can contact them directly at Ned Davis Research at 617-279-4878 to learn more.  Please know that neither I nor CMG are compensated in any form.  I’m just a big fan of their research and their way of thinking.  As a side, Ned Davis authored one of my favorite books, Being Right or Making Money.  A great book full of sound, practical advice. Trade Signals History: Trade Signals started after a colleague asked me if I could share my thoughts (trade signals) with him.  Many years ago, I found that putting pen to paper helped me in my investment management process, and I hope that this research is of value to you in your investment process. Every week, I share with you research I find valuable.  No one indicator is perfect, but we believe risk can be assessed and should be managed.  Some of this research helps to shape our thinking around risk management and it helps us think about how we might size various risks within the construct of a total portfolio.  For example, overweight or underweight equities/fixed income and how much one should consider allocating to tactical/liquid alternative exposures (such as managed futures, global macro, and long/short equity).  When and what to hedge?  Shorten or lengthen bond maturity exposure?  We believe such risks can be managed and, to us, broad portfolio diversification is important.  If you’d like to talk to us about how we use some of these indicators within our various investment strategies, please email me or email our sales team. Investment Process: From an investment management perspective, I’ve followed, managed, and written about trend following and investor sentiment for many years.  I find that reviewing various sentiment, Trend, and other historically valuable rules-based indicators each week helps me to stay balanced and disciplined in allocating to the various risk sets that are included within a broadly diversified total portfolio solution. My objective is to position myself in line with the equity and fixed-income market’s primary trends.  I believe risk management is paramount in a long-term investment process.  When to hedge, when to become more aggressive, etc. Using Options: For hedging, I favor a collared option approach (writing out-of-the-money covered calls and buying out-of-the-money put options) as a relatively inexpensive way to risk protect your long-term focused equity portfolio exposure.  Also, consider buying deep out-of-the-money put options for risk protection. Please note the comments at the bottom of this Trade Signals discussing a collared option strategy to hedge equity exposure using investor sentiment extremes as a guide to risk management. Go to www.cboe.com to learn more.  Hire an experienced advisor to help you.  Never write naked option positions.  There are a handful of ETF’s that offer market exposure with downside hedging with options. We do not offer options strategies at CMG. Please email me at blumenthal@cmgwealth.com if you’d like to learn more. Visit http://www.theoptionsguide.com/the-collar-strategy.aspx for more information. Diversification: A diversified investment portfolio is designed to meet pre-defined investment goals.  It is often hard to stay the course when stress presents itself.  That is when many investors tend to make the biggest mistakes.  Diversification means that not all investments perform at the same time.  For example, managed futures and long/short funds have underperformed the last several years but are outperforming recently.  We’d all like to be in the best-performing areas all the time, but that is just not possible. Major market events tend to present one or two times per decade.  It is for this reason that a longer-term view can provide a useful perspective.  We know that many investors incorrectly sold out of the markets during the tech bubble in 2000-2002 and again with record selling at the height of the 2008 great financial crisis.  No one knows exactly how the current distress will play out. What you can do is build a portfolio that is diversified across many risk factors and market environments.  You can identify periods in time to become more or less aggressively positioned (overweight when valuations are cheap and underweight when they are expensive).  You can manage risk not only by the collections of Stocks, ETFs, and funds selected but also by how you combine them together.  Many credible academic studies show diversification brings meaningful improvement to portfolios and you can create a plan designed to achieve a return objective suitable for you risk level, time horizon needs, and goals. I view the world of investing through a lens of risk and reward.  Ultimately, it is far more important to minimize losses than to capture the best gains.  Over time, it’s really about understanding the power of compound interest.  To this end, I wrote a paper entitled, The Merciless Math of Loss.